Swing State Polls & Map 2012: Romney Leads Obama In 'Key States'? DETAILS
With the Nov. 6 Election Day nearing, the swing states are as important as ever in becoming the deciding factor in this year's election results.
The 2012 swing states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Caroline, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, according to Politico. Among those swing states, they reported that Romney is in the lead for electoral votes (70 to 40) but in "Leaning/Likely State Votes," Obama is victorious with 237 over 191. Additionally, in states that Politico believes has strong and undeniable support to one side or the other, they concluded that Obama leads 277 in total overall electoral votes over Romney's 261.
However, Rasmussen Reports has a daily presidential tracking poll specifically for the 11 "key states" won by President Obama in 2008 and "thought to be competitive in 2012" (Politico stated only nine swing states). Those states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and results from Rasmussen's latest poll show that in those states, Romney is in the lead: Romney earned 49 percent of the vote and President Obama earned 46 percent. Among unaffiliated voters in those believed swing states, the poll showed that Romney is also leading: 50 to 37 percent.
The survey is conducted on a seven-day basis and they added that Romney has held on to his small lead for 11 of the last 14 days.
In 2008, Obama won over those states by a combined margin of 53 to 46 percent.
According to an assessment done by The New York Times of "how states may vote, based on polling, previous election results and the political geography in each state," the five "Leaning Democratic" states are Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. States that are believed to be leaning toward more Republican supporters are Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska.
Some reports make it seem like the candidates are almost tied for votes in the swing states but reports are bound to change as the nation gets closer to voting on Nov. 6. It can also be expected that the numbers will change after the candidates go head-to-head in their third and final debate on Oct. 22.