Who do you expect to be nominated for Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series at the 2016 Primetime Emmys? Let's discuss the race.

The Drama Lead Actress race at this year's Emmys has the potential to look a whole lot similar to last year's lineup. It could also be a year of upheaval for the category, with only one or two actresses returning.

The 2015 nominees Claire Danes, Taraji P. Henson, Tatiana Maslany, Robin Wright and winner Viola Davis are all eligible to return for this year's Emmys. The only actress who cannot come back is Elisabeth Moss, whose show, Mad Men, ended last year.

While the Emmy nominations can sometimes be a crapshoot to predict, let's do our best to guess which drama lead actresses might get the good news on nomination morning.

1. Viola Davis as Annalise Keating in How to Get Away with Murder
 

Davis won an Emmy last year for her fierce, complicated performance as attorney Annalise Keating. That was for the first season of How to Get Away with Murder, which technically makes her undefeated so far. Considering Davis' popularity in Hollywood the fact that she already has two Screen Actors Guild Awards for this performance, and the continued discussion about diversity in Hollywood, the actress is a slam dunk for another nomination.

2. Robin Wright as Claire Underwood in House of Cards
 

Wright has been nominated for the past three years for her role as icy First Lady Claire Underwood in the Netflix drama. Emmy voters clearly love the show and with this being a political year there's no reason to predict Wright to drop out now. It's possible she could even contend for the win in September.

3. Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in Homeland
 

Danes has received four nominations (and two wins) for playing Carrie Mathison on Homeland. Even when voters did not respond to the show's third season, dropping it from Best Drama Series only to have it return for season 4, Danes was still nominated that year. This is the fifth season of Homeland so Emmy voters could be getting tired of it, but Danes might be sticking it out in this category until the show ends.

4. Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick in The Good Wife
 

Margulies is a curious case at the Emmys as of late. She was nominated but did not win for season 1, she won for season 2, she was nominated for season 3 and then she was dropped completely for season 4. She then returned in season 5 and won the category, only to be dropped again for season 6 last year. With the buzz of this being the final season of The Good Wife, we expect voters will give her one last nomination.

5. Michelle Dockery as Mary Crawley in Downton Abbey
 

Dockery was nominated for seasons 2, 3, and 4 of Downton Abbey, but she was dropped last year for season 5. However, like Margulies, this will be the final year of eligibility for Dockery considering Downton Abbey concluded its final season this year. Voters have clearly loved Downton Abbey from the start, so we think Dockery will be swept in one last time for an Emmy farewell hug.

6. Eva Green as Vanessa Ives in Penny Dreadful
 

This one is a complete wildcard even among Emmy experts. Green has never been nominated for her critically acclaimed role in Penny Dreadful, but there are a few reasons we think it might happen this year. It's no secret that Emmy voters haven't exactly taken a shine to sci-fi/fantasy shows over the years, but the tide does appear to be changing. The groundswell of support at the Emmys for Game of Thrones suggests a possible change, plus nominees in this category like Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black. Green was nominated for a Golden Globe earlier this year and we think her star has risen enough to place her in this year's echelon.

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As you can see, we are predicting a bit of an overhaul in this category. The reason we're not predicting Empire's Henson and Orphan Black's Maslany simply comes down to their respective shows' fading buzz. Empire burned bright for its first season, bursting onto the television scene and becoming the highest rated new show in years. But it only got three nominations last year, suggesting voters simply didn't care for the show. Now the buzz has faded on Empire so even if Henson is giving a great performance, it won't matter if voters are no longer watching.

Then there's Maslany. The "Clone Club" a.k.a. the Orphan Black fanbase, had been clamoring for an Emmy nomination for the show's main star since season 1. It did not happen for season 1, nor did it happen for season 2, when many fans were predicting it to happen. Then season 3 rolled around, with significantly less buzz, and she managed to sneak in. It's possible she could get in again this year, but we think it may just be a one-and-done situation.

Other possible nominees in this category include Keri Russell for The Americans, Vera Farmiga for Bates Motel, Caitriona Balfe for Outlander, Krysten Ritter for Jessica Jones, Kerry Washington for Scandal, Shiri Appleby for UnREAL and Laura Carmichael for Downton Abbey.

Who do you think will be nominated for Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series?

Who will be nominated at the Emmys for Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series?

Nominations will be announced July 14.

Tags: Primetime Emmys television