The Outstanding Reality-Competition Program category at the Emmys may not be as clear cut as it was five years ago.
The 2016 Primetime Emmy nominations were announced on Thursday, and most of the usual contenders from the Reality-Competition Program category came back. Nominees included CBS' The Amazing Race, ABC's Dancing With the Stars, Lifetime's Project Runway, Bravo's Top Chef and NBC's The Voice, in addition to a new nominee, NBC's American Ninja Warrior.
The addition of American Ninja Warrior is the first sign of change in this category since 2012. The category has been stagnant for four years, with the same six shows nominated. Now, with So You Think You Can Dance dropping out, we finally have something to talk about in this category.
Let's break down which show we think will win Outstanding Reality-Competition Program, from least likely to most likely to win.
6. Project Runway (Lifetime)
Project Runway has received an astounding 12 consecutive nominations in this category, putting it second all-time behind The Amazing Race. However, the fashion-friendly show has yet to win the Emmy, suggesting that voters are simply not passionate enough about it to vote for it. In addition to the fact that the show is past its prime as far as mainstream buzz, it's safe to assume that Project Runway isn't winning.
5. Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
Like Project Runway, Dancing With the Stars has received a huge amount of nominations in this category - 11 to be exact. And also like Project Runway, the series has yet to take home the trophy. It's very likely that DWTS is another perennial nominee that will never win unless some of the bigger shows in this category go off the air. The show continues to receive several nominations in other technical categories, so it has a slight chance, but it's still unlikely.
4. Top Chef (Bravo)
Top Chef was the first show to break The Amazing Race's streak of seven consecutive wins, winning the award in 2010. The cooking series has racked up 10 nominations and is always a possibility for the win considering its past success. However, it seems unlikely that the show can win again so many years later, though not impossible.
3. American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior is the new blood in this category and as such, it stands a stronger chance than some of these perennial losers. The show has gained in popularity over the years and turned into strong family entertainment. Considering it is untested, we're putting it as the third most likely show to win and it very well could if voters are tired of awarding the following top two shows.
2. The Amazing Race (CBS)
It's no secret that Emmy voters adore The Amazing Race. The show has received a nomination here every single year since the category was invented in 2003, with 14 nominations in all. The show has picked up a whopping 10 wins and was generally seen as unstoppable in this category for years. As long as The Amazing Race is in this category, it has a strong chance to win, but we think the next show will edge it out yet again this year.
1. The Voice (NBC)
The Voice is the only other reality show to win multiple times in the Outstanding Reality-Competition Program category. It has been nominated every year since 2012 and won the award in 2013 and 2015. With celebrity coaches, inspiring stories and high production value, it's clear that Emmy voters are wowed by the show and we don't see that changing this year.
What do you think?
The Primetime Emmys will air live Sunday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on ABC.