Presidential Polls 2012, Swing State Polls Update: Obama/Romney Tie Before Big Day
Entering the final weekend until Election Day 2012, presidential candidates Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are only a slight margin away from each other, but is it enough to predict who the election winner will be?
Some are saying that it is too close of a race to make a confident statement about who the winner will be.
A HuffPost Polster poll tracking model, based on all available public polls, showed almost identical numbers of the national popular vote for the candidates: Romney at 47.3 percent and Obama at 47.2 percent. Other national polls also reveal a very close race, according to the Post, with the candidates being mostly separated by 1-4 percentage points or actual votes.
Politico's swing-state map showed the candidates separated in Electoral College votes from the nine most competitive states by only a few numbers - Obama with 53 swing-state votes and Romney with 57. The 2012 swing-states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Caroline, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, according to the site.
The close call may be because voters identify so closely with the ideologies of the candidates.Gallup released a report on Friday, Nov. 2, stating that 50 percent of U.S. voters have the same ideological views as either Obama or Romney.
"Voters' ratings of their own ideology compared with their ratings of the two candidates' ideologies give a sense of how close the candidates are to the voters they are trying to represent," they noted.
Politico compiled a list of national election polls that also called it a close race coming into the final days before the Nov. 6 deadline:
In their "National '12 President General Election" poll, Rasmussen Reports revealed that among 3,000 likely voters, Romney had 49 percent of voters supporting him and Obama had 47 percent. The survey was taken from Oct. 28- 31. Three percent of poll takers were undecided 1 percent voted for a third-party candidate.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted during the same time period among 1,293 likely voters said Obama was in the lead by only one points - 49 percent to Romney's 48 percent.
A Public Policy polling of 1,200 likely voters from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 showed Obama in the lead with 49 percent and Romney with 48 percent. Three percent of voters were undecided.
The close numbers make it hard for experts to predict who the winner will be among the candidates.
"It's somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House," Scott Rasmussen commented. "But the race for the White House remains close because of the economy. Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either."
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