Jeffrey Tambor might win a second consecutive Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, but there are a few possible threats who could snatch the trophy away.
Tambor's emotionally sensitive performance as Maura Pfefferman in Amazon's Transparent resulted in the actor's first Emmy win in 2015. He's back with another nomination this year but he has stronger competition this time around.
Tambor is still a frontrunner to win the Emmy again, but a few nominated actors have solid chances of winning as well. Let's examine the Lead Actor in a Comedy Series category, ranked from least likely to win but most likely to win.
6. Will Forte as Phil Miller in The Last Man on Earth
This is Forte's second consecutive nomination for playing the lead character in The Last Man on Earth. While the Emmys seemed to like the show last year, giving it four nominations, this time around is a different story. Forte is the Fox comedy's only nomination, suggesting that voters weren't as impressed with season 2. While Forte does give a great, singular performance, he may not have the broad support of other actors and shows in this category.
5. William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher in Shameless
Macy is well-liked within the industry, having won the Screen Actors Guild Award last year for playing Frank Gallagher in the Showtime series. However, despite this being his third straight nomination at the Emmys, he has yet to win. His buzz did not particularly rise with Shameless' sixth season, so it doesn't seem likely that he can win this time around.
4. Thomas Middleditch as Richard Hendricks in Silicon Valley
Middleditch is finally nominated for Silicon Valley in the show's third season. It's not entirely clear why the Emmys did not nominate him for seasons 1 or 2 considering how much support the show has received from the beginning, so a win this year may be up in the air. Yet, Middleditch is untested in this category so there's always a chance.
3. Aziz Ansari as Dev Shah in Master of None
Despite seven strong seasons on NBC's Parks and Recreation, this is Ansari's first acting nomination at the Emmys. His show, Master of None, was clearly a hit with Emmy voters, making it into Comedy Series and the directing and writing categories. Ansari is clearly a well-liked person in Hollywood and has a really great chance of winning this Emmy, but his performance may be a little too similar to his own self for some voters - a problem that has plagued actors like Louis C.K. and Larry David.
2. Anthony Anderson as Andre "Dre" Johnson in black-ish
Anderson's show black-ish made a big splash culturally with it second season, airing multiple episodes centered on some heavy-hitting topics regarding race relations in America. Anderson's co-star, Tracee Ellis Ross, made it into Lead Actress this year and the show was nominated for Comedy Series. This being Anderson's second consecutive nomination, he clearly has popularity in the industry and he may be the funny alternative to Tambor's largely dramatic performance.
1. Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman in Transparent
Ultimately, we think Tambor has this one again. No matter what episode he submits for consideration, Tambor will likely receive a lot of votes in this category, with his performance as transgender septuagenarian Maura Pfefferman continuing to be one of the best performances on television in season 2. It is still very possible that there could be an upset, considering this is Lead Actor in a Comedy Series and his is the most dramatic performance in the category, but we think his strength will supersede any genre issues.
The 2016 Primetime Emmys will air live on Sunday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on ABC.