The 2017 Oscar race for Best Actor is heating up, and while one contender seems most likely to win, there's still a chance for an upset.
The Oscar nominations are just one week away which means it's time to start predicting which of Hollywood's best will be nominated. The race for Best Actor has a slew of contenders hoping to get in, though the nominations race feels like it has solidified.
Here are our predictions for the five Best Actor nominees at the Oscars, in addition to the five actors who could surprise.
1. Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Casey Affleck has mostly swept the awards race so far with his subtle yet controlled performance as Lee Chandler in Manchester by the Sea. Winning both the Critics' Choice and the Golden Globe Awards for Best Actor, Affleck is clearly out in front and should easily get a nomination at the Oscars. This will be his second nomination, after being nominated for Best Supporting Actor for 2007's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
2. Denzel Washington - Fences
Denzel Washington is a major Academy favorite, having won two Oscars (for 1989's Glory and 2001's Training Day) and four additional nominations. Washington is perfectly suited to the pure acting showcase that is Fences, and he carries the movie with his charismatic presence. If Academy voters don't respond to Affleck's more subtle acting they could rally behind Washington to get his third win, but either way he should be set for his seventh nominations.
3. Ryan Gosling - La La Land
While Emma Stone has received the lion's share of "best in show" acclaim for La La Land, Gosling has been picking up all kinds of nominations for his role as jazz pianist Sebastian Wilder. The actor had a very strong year with The Nice Guys showing his pure comedic chops and now La La Land showing his musicality. Gosling won the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Comedy and considering the love for his movie, he should have no problem getting his second career nomination.
4. Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Andrew Garfield has been taking on many big acting roles over the past decade, and it almost led to an Oscar nomination for 2010's The Social Network. It didn't happen, but it looks like Garfield will receive his first Academy Award nom for Hacksaw Ridge, in which the actor plays war hero Desmond Doss. Garfield has been nominated at all the major precursors, including Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA and while he may not be in contention to win, his nomination feels secured.
5. Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Viggo Mortensen's awards run is a bit unexpected considering Captain Fantastic was an indie movie without that much built-up Oscar buzz. However, he has made it into the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs and is clearly in contention now to receive his second Oscar nomination, following 2007's Eastern Promises. The trouble for Mortensen will be Academy members seeing the movie, which is why he's probably fifth, but still has a great shot of being nominated.
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6. Joel Edgerton - Loving
Like his Loving co-star, Ruth Negga, Edgerton was an early favorite to possibly receive his first Oscar nomination, but such dreams seem to be slipping away. Edgerton has only been nominated at Critics' Choice and the Golden Globes, neither of which have any voters in the Academy itself. However, Loving has the potential to be more Academy-friendly than Captain Fantastic and Hacksaw Ridge so there's still a chance he might sneak in.
7. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals
Jake Gyllenhaal hasn't really been in contention for an Oscar nomination for his complicated role in Nocturnal Animals, but he received a surprise BAFTA nomination last week. The seedy subject matter of Nocturnal Animals may turn Academy voters off but Gyllenhaal is a well-respected actor with a nomination under his belt, so if voters are looking for another contender, he may be the one.
8. Tom Hanks - Sully
Once again it looks like Tom Hanks is missing out on an Oscar nomination. The actor has received awards buzz for playing heroes or icons in many recent movies, including Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks, Richard Phillips in Captain Phillips and now Chesley Sullenberger in Sully, but it hasn't worked out. Hanks did receive a nomination at the Critics' Choice Awards for playing Sullenberger, but no other awards groups have nominated him. His chances are likely done, but he's still in the hunt.
9. Andrew Garfield - Silence
If the Academy really likes Silence, Garfield could very well supplant his performance in Hacksaw Ridge. Unfortunately, Silence, directed by Martin Scorsese, has been drawing dead all awards season, with one measly nomination from the American Society of Cinematographers. Surprises have happened before, though, and voters could feel that Garfield's performance in Silence was more challenging than Hacksaw Ridge.
10. Ryan Reynolds - Deadpool
The question on many Oscar predictors' minds is how well Deadpool could do. The superhero satire has emerged as an unexpected awards contender, with nominations at the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild, the Writers Guild and other industry groups. It's no secret that Reynolds has been everywhere promoting the movie and if voters really want to throw a curveball into this year's lineup for Best Actor, it's through Reynolds.
The Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 24 at 8:18 a.m. ET.